USDJPY, USDCAD, and AUDUSD trading plan (21-12-2015).

We are entering the two last weeks of the year, usually during that period volumes decline sharply, and not that much is happening. Remember it before entering into any trade.

1-USDJPY TRADING PLAN.

Watch 121,5 for it is a key level.  Buy signals toward 123,3, but most probably sell that level towards 118,5 and under.

Looking at the weekly chart, we see the pair in an uptrend, but the two last candles are a bearish engulfing on a resistance, followed by a gravestone doji. This suggests the bears are slowly taking control of that market. The USDJPY is still supported buy the 55 SMA, currently around 121,5, ans a breakdown of that SMA would be a bearish signal. The next support, a potential take profit level, is near 118,5.

USDJPY WEEKLY CHART.

USDJPY_W

The daily chart shows no clear trend. The last bearish candles are however more powerful than the bullish ones. the Friday candle in particular was a huge bearish engulfing one, rejecting a 78,6 resistance level around 123,3, and breaking down also 200,100, and 55 SMAs that are all located around 121,5. This candle is so powerful that I rather expect the bearish move to continue, but as we are near the end of the year, I would prefer to see a retest of 121,5 and a new bearish signal before entering any short trade.

USDJPY DAILY CHART.

UJ_D

2-USDCAD trading plan.

The CAD is driven by fundamental factors, mainly oil prices, and the currency is going down with them. I will buy dips to aim at the 78,6 Fibonacci resistance around 1,455. Mind the 1,40 level as it a resistance/support level.

The monthly chart shows the pair nicely rushing up after breaking a strong resistance around 1,34 (horizontal and 61,8 Fibonaccci level). The USDCAD is now climbing, but it also ended the week on a resistance/support level around 1,40. If it passes through, the next resistance will be the 78,6 Fibonacci level around 1,455.

USDCAD MONTHLY CHART.

USDCAD_M

On the weekly chart we see a clear uptrend, with all SMAs parallel and pointing north. The two last candles are strong bullish ones, meaning  the trend is accelerating. This move is already well on its way, and there is even a stochastic bearish divergence. I will definitely not buy that pair until it goes back on a support first .

USDCAD WEEKLY CHART.

USDCAD_W

The daily chart confirms this sudden acceleration of the bullish move during the last two weeks, and we may even draw a very sharp trend line that supports it. That move follows a brief consolidation phase between 1,32 and 1,34, which I reported in blue on the chart for I will use it to find support levels.

USDCAD DAILY CHART.

USDCAD_D

I will use the H4 chart to find those supports, by drawing a Fibonacci retracement of that strong bullish move. I will update it when necessary, and wait for a pull back before buying the loonie.

USDCAD H4 CHART.

usd_cad_h4

3-AUDUSD trading plan.

Sell retest of 0,72. Watch 0,70 for it is a strong support. Buy any break out of 0,72 towards 0,735.

The monthly chat shows AUDUSD in a bearish consolidation. Short term SMAs -20 and 40- are now pointing down, and the even crossed down the 100 SMA. We see a strong support around 0,70, with a 78,6 Fibonacci level. It is for now preventing the pair from falling further.

AUDUSD MONTHLY CHART.

AUDUSD_M

There is a clear bearish trend on the weekly chart, but the pair bounced up after rejecting the 0,70 support, reaching as high as 0,735, which will be our take profit for any counter trend long trade. The pair seems to be now trading within a triangle, and the last candle, a bearish high waved candle, shows some indecision.

AUDUSD WEEKLY CHART.

AUDUSD_W

On the daily chart, and after rejecting the 0,70 support, the pair consolidated up to the 0,735 resistance but rejected it. It then went mildly down until it broke violently the 0,72 support on Thursday, to retest it as a resistance on Friday. I will watch price action there, to buy any break out towards 0,735, or to sell bearish signals to go back to 0,70.

AUDUSD DAILY CHART.

AUDUSD_D

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