Major economic news Next week (15 – 19 August 2016)

It will be another volatile week with several high impact news and speeches this week. Though this week the focus is on the UK economy with its employment data letting us in on its inflation; we also have a few events that will impact the currency market from the U.S.Fundamentals have created a ranging market over the past few weeks, hence besides our technical analysis lets look at this weeks major impact events.

Fundamental Analysis

Most Important Economic Events Week Ahead

Below will be the main highlights for the week;


UK CPI: Tuesday, 8.30 GMT. The Brexit vote and rising cost of living is the main influencer towards the inflation rate in UK with an expectation that it will hit 2% by 2017. The consensus for July’s rate is 0.5%. This event is expected to influences GBP crosses for the better part of the week.

German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9.00 GMT. This is a second event this coming week tied closely to the Brexit decision. The expectation is 2.1 points from a previous 6.8 points showing a continued decrease in investor sentiment. Though not considered a high impact event, this announcement will shape European markets.

Building Permits, US: Tuesday, 12.30 GMT. Construction projects are expected to rise from 1.15M to 1.16M favoring a mid week bullish outlook for the US dollar. This will be a boost from the growing housing market registered in May.

US Consumer Price Index: Tuesday, 12.30 GMT. Though the main focus will be on building permits; the purchasing power of the USD will also be a key event this Tuesday with an expectation of 0.0% from a previous 0.2%.

New Zealand Employment Data: Tuesday, 22.45 GMT. With more jobs being created for the first quarter of this year, a higher figure will show growth in New Zealand economy; however, a decline to 0.7% is expected from the previous 1.2%.


UK Employment Data: Wednesday, 8.30 GMT. This will be the week’s major event with the rising trend in UK’s labor force expected to continue. However, after record low figures, the number of people filing for unemployment is expected to grow by 5200 this time.

US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14.30. Over supply of oil from OPEC and other producing blocs has led the decline in oil prices; Inventories were 1.05 barrels this past week, a figure that is expected to fall slightly.

US FOMC Minutes: Wednesday, 18.00. The previous Fed meeting kept the interest rates constant. The focus will be on the members tone to see if there is any probability of hiking interest rates this year, 2016. However, the probability of such a decision is below 50%, hence very unlikely.


Australia Employment Data: Thursday, 1.30 GMT. Apart from UK employment figures this week, the AUD and its crosses will also be in the headlines with an expectation that unemployment rates will rise by 0.1% to 5.9%.

US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday 12.30 GMT. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia will be releasing the manufacturing index. This is expected to rise from a previous figure of -2.9 to 1.5. This index is a good predictor of the ISM Manufacturing index.

Initial Jobless Claims: Thursday, 12.30 GMT. The number of initial jobless claims is expected to continue declining as the US economy boasts a strong labor market. The figure for the past week was at 265K.

FOMC Member Williams Speech: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco views on monetary policies will be aired adding to more perspective of the interest rate hike probability.


Canada Retail Sales: Friday, 12.30 GMT. This figure will be released together with the Canada CPI and hence more attention could be given to the CPI. This weeks figure is expected to rise from 0.2% to 0.5%.

The Canadian Consumer Price Index: Friday, 12.30 GMT. This releasebe among the major events to close the week with the core index expected to remain at 2.1%.


You can view all the events scheduled this coming week in Economic Calendar


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